A Predictable Unpredictability

It’s pretty apparent that sellers of 10 kuai umbrellas outside Shanghai’s Metro stations during unexpected downpours have mastered the Law of Murphy: someone’s bound to forget an umbrella on a rainy day. And they’re definitely going to need one with pink leopard print.

I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve started a very respectable collection of these 10 or 15 kuai (sometimes I splurge on a convenience store one) umbrellas that have proven themselves crucial in Shanghai’s erratic weather. Evidence gathered over the past 3 years living in the area has proven insufficient to make any solid conclusions as to which season is the actual “rainy season” in Shanghai. Each 3-month period of time seems to have the same amount of rain as the preceding one, despite my coworkers’ assertions that I should expect whatever season is next to be the actual rainy season.

You’d think that with this high a degree of unpredictability (or predictability, Murphy would say) I might always carry an umbrella with me so I could avoid a dog-pile of umbrellas in my closet. But I like to live dangerously. Keeps me on my toes. It’s why I have such strong toes.

But if there’s one thing in the world more predictable than Shanghai weather’s unpredictability, it’s that aforementioned 10 kuai umbrellas will break.

Circumstances under which a 10 kuai umbrella will break [Inspired by McSweeney’s Book of Lists]

Heavy wind

Moderate wind

Wind

Snow

Sleet

Rain

If you touch it

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